تحليل فضايي نقش روستا – شهرها بر ساختار اقتصادي-اجتماعي نواحي روستايي استان اصفهان

The analysis of the socio-economic structure of rural-towns is a critical subject in rural studies. However, such analyses have often been approached indirectly, with greater emphasis placed on preventing rural outmigration an‎d regional competition, rather than examining the socio-economic structure as an independent issue. This study aims to conduct a spatial analysis of the components influencing the socio-economic structure of rural areas in Isfahan Province, Iran. The research employs spatial analysis techniques using data from 13 newly established rural-towns during the period 2011–2021 (Asgharabad, Baghsheyd, Bideh, Boostan-e-Zar, Dehsorkh, Fathabad, Golshan, Josheghan-e-Qali, Sin, Tad, Torogh Rod, Zazeran, an‎d Ziar). The sample size was determined using Cochran’s formula, an‎d a total of 384 questionnaires were completed by residents of these rural-towns. The research methodology is descriptive-analytical, with data collected through both library-based research an‎d field surveys. Data analysis was conducted using one-sample t-tests an‎d Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in MATLAB. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the key components affecting the socio-economic structure was performed using ArcGIS 10.8.2. Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation index was applied to examine spatial patterns, an‎d Kriging interpolation was used to estimate the influence of variables in unobserved areas. The results of the SEM indicated that the research variables possessed acceptable levels of validity an‎d reliability. The t-test results showed that social capital, with a mean score of 3.01, had the greatest impact on the social structure of the studied areas. In the economic dimension, aside from employment an‎d economic diversification, other indicators—especially economic stability—were found to be weak. Specifically, the average score for economic structure indicators was 2.95, with a t-value of -0.98, indicating the most negative influence among the rural-towns under study. Overall, the findings suggest that except for the economic stability index, other components of the socio-economic structure in the thirteen studied rural-towns are in relatively favorable conditions. Consequently, if the socio-economic transformations in these areas are continuously monitored an‎d appropriately planned for, the continued development an‎d promotion of rural-towns can be considered a viable strategy for rural development.

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