حساسيت سرمايه‌گذاري به قيمت سهام همتايان: نقش تعديلگر عملكرد همتايان و اعتماد بيش از حد مديريتي

Sensitivity of Investment to Peers’ Stock Price: The Moderating Role of Peers’ Performance an‎d CEO Overconfidence

حسابداري

Abstract Investment sensitivity to peer firms’ stock prices has attracted considerable attention in the financial literature. Firms’ investment decisions require information about growth opportunities, industry conditions, an‎d the outlook for economic activities, an‎d internal firm-specific information alone cannot provide managers with all of the information required for such decisions. Therefore, when eva‎luating investment opportunities, managers consider not only internal information but also information available in the market an‎d the behavior of comparable firms. The stock prices of peer firms may incorporate part of this information an‎d, by providing signals regarding industry conditions, growth opportunities, an‎d market expectations, can assist managers in eva‎luating investment opportunities. Accordingly, changes in peer firms’ stock prices may affect managers’ assessments of investment opportunities an‎d, consequently, firms’ investment levels. Hence, firms’ investment may be sensitive to the stock prices of their peers. However, the strength of this relationship is not necessarily the same across all firms an‎d may be influenced by peer firms’ performance an‎d managers’ behavioral characteristics. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the effect of peer firms’ stock prices on corporate investment an‎d the moderating roles of peer performance an‎d managerial overconfidence in this relationship. This study is applied in terms of its purpose an‎d descriptive-correlational in terms of its research design. The statistical population comprises firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Using a screening method, 144 firms were selec‎ted as the sample over the period from 2015 to 2024 (1394–1403 in the Persian calendar). To examine the relationships of interest, panel data an‎d multiple regression models were employed.The findings indicate that peer firms’ stock prices have a positive an‎d statistically significant effect on corporate investment, suggesting that an increase in peer firms’ stock prices is associated with an increase in firms’ investment. Furthermore, peer performance strengthens this relationship. The results regarding managerial overconfidence indicate that its moderating effect depends on how the construct is measured. Specifically, the moderating effect was not statistically significant in the main model; however, in the robustness test using a capital expenditure-based measure, its moderating effect was positive an‎d statistically significant. Overall, the findings suggest that information incorporated into peer firms’ stock prices can play an important role in corporate investment decisions an‎d that the extent to which firms’ investment responds to such information varies according to peer performance an‎d managerial behavioral characteristics, including managerial overconfidence. Keywords: Peer Firms, Peer Performance, Investment-Stock Price Sensitivity, Managerial Overconfidence.

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