تدوين شاخص تودهگرايي (پوپوليسم) نفتي و ارزيابي تأثير آن بر رشد اقتصادي كشورهاي منتخب در حال توسعه

Developing an Index of Petro-Populist Populism an‎d eva‎luating Its Impact on Economic Growth in selec‎ted Developing Countries

اقتصاد

Abstract: Experience shows that populist economic policies impose significant costs on national economies. Reduced growth an‎d economic stagnation, inflation, corruption, an‎d budget deficits are among the main consequences of economic populism. Petro-populism is a phenomenon that appears in oil-dependent governments, where authorities try to secure mass support by relying on oil revenues. Given that signs of populism have emerged in Iran in recent decades, this study pursues two main objectives. First, based on the literature on populism, economic populism, an‎d petro-populism, ten indicators of populism are proposed (five behavioral an‎d five outcome indicators). The calculated values of these ten indicators for Iran over the period (1989–2012) show that during the ninth an‎d tenth administrations (2005–2012) most of the proposed indicators reached their highest levels. To construct a single petro-populism index, a weighted combination of these indicators was proposed an‎d computed for the mentioned period. The findings indicate that this composite index peaked in 1388 (2009) compared with the whole study period. After establishing that economic populism was more pronounced in Iran during (2005–2012), the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) was applied to eva‎luate the effects of populist policies on economic growth in Iran an‎d two other oil-rich countries during their respective populist periods. Iran, Russia, an‎d Ecuador were selec‎ted as the treated countries, an‎d eleven oil-exporting countries were chosen as the control group. The results show that the actual an‎d synthetic trajectories of Iran’s economic growth during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration differ significantly. The model estimates support the research hypothesis for Russia, while they reject it for Ecuador. Keywords: Populism, Petro-populism, Economic Growth Rate, Synthetic Control Method.

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