سناريونگاري آينده صنعت غذا در ايران تا افق 1410 با استفاده از روش تركيبي نقشه‌هاي شناختي فازي و ريخت‌شناسي فازي

Scenario planning for food industry in Iran until 1410 Using the combined method of fuzzy cognitive maps an‎d fuzzy morphology

مهندسي صنايع و آينده پژوهي

The world today is facing challenges that threaten human survival, an‎d among them, the food system, as one of the most basic human needs, plays a vital role. The future of the food industry in Iran is influenced by factors such as climate change, population growth, improper food distribution, pan‎demics, an‎d unsustainable consumption patterns, all of which can jeopardize food security. Given the identification an‎d examination of threatening factors, as well as technological advancements, it is necessary to prepare for future food shortages an‎d to develop alternatives to current food products. Accordingly, this research was conducted using a futures-oriented approach, with the aim of developing future scenarios for the food industry in Iran an‎d proposing robust policies. Using a systematic review, document analysis, an‎d thematic analysis, 22 overarching themes (i.e., variables) affecting the future of the food industry in Iran were extracted an‎d classified into STEEP categories. After constructing a 22 × 22 cross-impact analysis matrix for each expert, collecting expert judgments, an‎d averaging their assessments, an integrated cross-impact analysis matrix was developed. By entering this matrix into the MICMAC software an‎d analyzing the resulting influence–dependence maps, five key variables affecting the future of the food industry in Iran were identified. These variables include: “international relations an‎d policies, an‎d geopolitical risks in the food system,” “inequality in household purchasing power,” “the impact of climate change on production sustainability,” “the role of nutrition education an‎d a healthy lifestyle as a driver of public health an‎d food sustainability,” an‎d “investment in the food industry, from intellectual property to production sustainability.” After entering these key variables into the morphological matrix, 243 possible combinations were identified. By eliminating incompatible combinations using the Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA) method, 70 compatible combinations remained. From these combinations, four scenarios were extracted using the OLDFAR method: "Plate of Hope," "Tables Under Dust," "Bitter Bite," an‎d "Bitter Bread." For each scenario, a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) was employed. The corresponding state vector was iteratively multiplied by the integrated interaction analysis matrix until the system reached a stable equilibrium state. Subsequently, the scenarios were analyzed an‎d interpreted. Next, indicators were developed for each of the key variables. Furthermore, based on the four future scenarios, a set of policies consistent with the internal logic of each scenario was formulated for the possible futures. These policies are presented with the aim of maintaining the countryʹs minimum level of food security up to the 1410 horizon an‎d enhancing the resilience of the food industry under diverse environmental conditions. The findings of this research provide a scientific foundation for policymaking, strategic planning, an‎d forward-looking decision-making aimed at achieving national sustainability an‎d food security.

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