الگوسازي پويايي هاي نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ايران : رويكرد پويايي شناسي سيستم

Abstract In this study, the dynamics of the exchange rate in Iran’s economy are analyzed based on feedback interactions among macroeconomic variables, expectations, an‎d external shocks. The main premise of the research is that the exchange rate dynamics in Iran can be modeled as endogenous an‎d self-reinforcing mechanisms arising from the linkage between economic agents’ expectations, the status of monetary an‎d fiscal variables, an‎d disturbances caused by external shocks. To explain these mechanisms, a system dynamics model was designed that represents the role of positive an‎d negative feedback loops among price levels, nominal an‎d real exchange rates, tradable sector productivity, government fiscal policies, foreign trade, an‎d sanctions. The research methodology was conducted in three stages: first, developing a conceptual model by identifying key variables an‎d mapping causal structures an‎d feedback loops; second, quantitatively formulating relationships, calibrating parameters based on Iranian economic data, an‎d conducting structural an‎d behavioral validity tests of the model; an‎d third, performing dynamic simulations, sensitivity analyses, an‎d policy scenario eva‎luations to examine historical behavior an‎d forecast the future path of the exchange rate. The simulation results indicate that the exchange rate in Iran’s economy is a multifactorial an‎d endogenous phenomenon shaped by the interplay of three main forces: market expectations, which reinforce exchange rate behavior through signaling mechanisms an‎d expectation adjustments; financial an‎d monetary imbalances, including budget deficits, liquidity growth, an‎d deman‎d pressures, which determine the fundamental exchange rate path; an‎d external shocks such as sanctions, which exacerbate oscillatory loops by reducing currency supply an‎d limiting production capacity. The model demonstrates that only through an integrated analysis of these feedback mechanisms can the historical behavior an‎d future trajectory of the exchange rate be accurately explained. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the necessity of adopting a coordinated approach in monetary, fiscal, an‎d trade policies, managing expectations, an‎d strengthening the tradable sector to achieve sustainable exchange rate stability. Keywords: System Dynamics, Exchange Rates, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Terms of Trade.

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