بررسي كارايي اطلاعاتي بازار مسكن ايران در سطح ضعيف و مقايسه آن با چند كشور منتخب

An Examination of the Weak-Form Informational Efficiency of Iran’s Housing Market an‎d a Comparison with selec‎ted Countries

مديريت

The real estate market, as one of the important pillars of the economy, plays a fundamental role in resource allocation an‎d economic growth. One of the key factors in the proper functioning of this market is informational efficiency, which indicates the extent to which information affecting prices is continuously reflected in asset values. In Iran, factors such as high inflation rates, currency fluctuations, an‎d a lack of informational transparency can lead to a decrease in the informational efficiency of the housing market. This inefficiency results in consequences such as suboptimal capital allocation an‎d severe price fluctuations. The desired goal is the formation of a market where prices quickly an‎d accurately reflect available information an‎d prevent the emergence of price bubbles. Despite the importance of this issue, the informational efficiency of Iranʹs housing market has so far received less attention from researchers. This research is conducted with the aim of eva‎luating the weak-form informational efficiency of Iranʹs housing market an‎d comparing it with that of some selec‎ted countries (developed an‎d developing) in order to provide a clearer picture of the state of Iranʹs housing market efficiency compared to the selec‎ted countries for policymakers an‎d active participants in this market. The research method in this section is based on time series analysis an‎d utilizes tests such as the automatic variance ratio, automatic portmanteau, Ljung-Box, an‎d runs test to eva‎luate the degree of return autocorrelation, which is the focus of weak-form efficiency tests. For this eva‎luation, the seasonal returns of Iranʹs housing market an‎d the selec‎ted countries are used. Furthermore, the present research examines the impact of exchange rate returns, inflation rate, an‎d GDP growth on the returns of Iranʹs housing market, with the aim of investigating how information available in macroeconomic variables affects housing returns, using regression analysis in both concurrent an‎d predictive forms. The results indicate that in most of the countries studied, the housing market has not been weakly efficient. In some countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, an‎d Germany, the hypothesis of market inefficiency is not rejected; however, other countries such as Australia, Iran, the United States, the UAE, an‎d Brazil reject the efficiency hypothesis, indicating the complete inefficiency of these markets in these countries. Furthermore, in Iran, the inflation rate has a direct an‎d significant effect on housing returns. The exchange rate return also shows a significant effect with a short-term lag on housing returns. In contrast, economic growth does not have a significant effect on housing returns. These results indicate that policymakers in Iranʹs housing market should focus on controlling the inflation rate, enhancing informational transparency in the market, reforming resource allocation mechanisms, an‎d designing targeted financial an‎d credit policies to improve the informational an‎d allocative efficiency of the housing market, adopt better policies in the housing sector, an‎d optimize resource allocation.

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