آينده پژوهي انقلاب اسلامي ايران: رويكرد سناريوپردازي

Abstract The Islamic Revolution of Iran, as one of the most significant an‎d distinctive political–social transformations of the twentieth century, not only led to the collapse of the monarchical system but also fundamentally altered Iran’s political, social, an‎d ideological order as well as regional an‎d international equations. More than four decades after the victory of the Revolution, an‎d amid the accumulation of political, economic, social, cultural, an‎d security crises, the future of the Islamic Revolution has become one of the most important theoretical an‎d strategic issues in Iranian political studies. This research aims to identify an‎d analyze the future scenarios of the Islamic Revolution of Iran by employing a futures studies approach an‎d the scenario planning method. The study is qualitative in nature an‎d is based on documentary an‎d library research, while also benefiting from an expert survey. In the first stage, the historical, social, political, an‎d cultural foundations of the Islamic Revolution, as well as the major internal an‎d external crises an‎d challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, are examined. Subsequently, by identifying key driving forces an‎d critical uncertainties, the future scenarios are developed an‎d analyzed, including “Collapse of the Political an‎d Social Structure,” “Chronic Multidimensional Crisis with a Deep Generational Gap,” “Western Isolation an‎d Eastern Convergence,” “Scientific–Economic Leap without Cultural–Political Reforms,” “Fundamental Reforms an‎d Transformation into a Regional Power,” “Military Attack an‎d Collapse,” “Realization of the New Islamic–Iranian Civilization,” “Continuation of the Status Quo with Gradual Reforms,” an‎d “Gradual Transformation of the Islamic Revolution.” The analytical findings of the study indicate that, from the author’s perspective, the scenarios of “Continuation of the Status Quo with Gradual Reforms” an‎d “Gradual Transformation of the System” constitute the most probable future paths for the Islamic Revolution of Iran. In contrast, the results of a survey conducted among sixteen faculty members in the field of humanities at the University of Isfahan show that the scenario of a “Chronic Multidimensional Crisis with a Deep Generational Gap” is considered the most likely scenario by academic experts. This divergence in assessments reflects the complexity of the future of the Islamic Revolution an‎d its strong dependence on the level of systemic efficiency, the capacity to manage crises, elite cohesion, an‎d the degree of social participation. Keywords: Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Revolution, Crisis

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