تحليل سناريوهاي پيش روي خاورميانه: نقش و جايگاه محور مقاومت

Analysis of the Future Scenarios of the Middle East: The Role an‎d Position of the Axis of Resistance

علوم سياسي

The Axis of Resistance has, in recent decades, emerged as one of the key actors in the political an‎d security dynamics of the Middle East, playing a significant role in shaping regional order transformations. It has exerted a direct influence on the balance of power, security patterns, an‎d the configuration of regional forces. Nevertheless, the future of this axis is confronted with multiple uncertainties within the context of regional an‎d international developments. The actions of extra-regional powers, intra-regional transformations, an‎d the internal dynamics of this network have collectively opened up diverse potential trajectories for its evolution. Accordingly, the central research question of this study is: through which scenarios can the future of the Axis of Resistance in West Asia be explained, an‎d what implications would each of these scenarios have for regional order an‎d security? The primary objective of the research is to conceptualize the alternative futures of the Axis of Resistance an‎d to analyze their respective implications for the balance of power an‎d regional order. This study adopts a futures studies approach an‎d is grounded in qualitative methods, particularly expert-based brainstorming, document analysis, an‎d scenario building. The theoretical framework, drawing upon a synthesis of defensive realism, constructivism, an‎d critical geopolitics, seeks to explain the multi-level dynamics shaping the future of the Axis of Resistance across three levels: intra-axis, regional, an‎d international. The findings indicate that the future of the Axis of Resistance can be structured within a set of desirable, probable, an‎d possible scenarios. In the desirable scenarios, the strengthening of the axis’s position within an emerging multipolar order an‎d its institutionalization within the political structures of the region are envisioned. In the probable scenarios, the continuation of a fragile balance an‎d mutual deterrence, movement toward self-sufficiency, an‎d efforts by rival actors to contain the axis through smart containment strategies are emphasized. In the possible scenario, the weakening of the resistance network an‎d the reassertion of dominance-based patterns in the regional order are proposed. Overall, the results suggest that the future trajectory of the Axis of Resistance is not linear; rather, it is primarily shaped by the interaction of transformations in the international system, regional rivalries, an‎d the degree of internal cohesion within the axis. Consequently, each of the outlined scenarios carries distinct implications for the future of stability, security, an‎d the configuration of power in the Middle East.

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