آينده‌نگاري فناوري‌هاي جذب، ذخيره‌سازي و استفاده از كربن در صنعت فولاد مورد مطالعه: شركت فولاد مباركه

Technology foresight , Carbon capture , utilization an‎d storage (CCUS) , Steel industry , Scenario planning , Technology roadmap , Mobarakeh Steel Company

Technology Foresight of Carbon Capture, Storage, an‎d Utilization in the Steel Industry Case study: Mobarakeh Steel Company

مهندسي صنايع و آينده پژوهي

The steel industry, as one of the most energy-intensive an‎d carbon-emitting industrial sectors, plays a significant role in greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, increasing environmental pressures, climate policies, an‎d transformations in the global steel market have compelled this industry to move toward low-carbon development pathways. In this context, Carbon Capture, Utilization, an‎d Storage (CCUS) technologies have emerged as one of the key options for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions. However, the development an‎d deployment of CCUS technologies are associated with substantial technological, economic, institutional, an‎d policy uncertainties, highlighting the necessity of adopting foresight-based approaches. The main objective of this research is to conduct a technology foresight study of CCUS in the Iranian steel industry, with a specific focus on Mobarakeh Steel Company, an‎d to design development pathways for these technologies toward the 1414 Iranian calendar horizon. To achieve this objective, a systematic, multi-stage, an‎d mixed-method technology foresight approach was employed. Initially, environmental scanning was conducted using the STEEPV framework to identify factors influencing the future of CCUS, which were categorized into social, technological, economic, environmental, political–legal, an‎d institutional dimensions. Through conceptual refinement an‎d expert judgment analysis, 37 key factors were finalized an‎d eva‎luated based on their importance an‎d uncertainty. The results of the importance–uncertainty matrix analysis led to the identification of five key drivers an‎d critical uncertainties shaping the future of CCUS in the Iranian steel industry. Based on these drivers, a scenario planning process was conducted. Two fundamental uncertainties—namely, the level of domestic institutional, financial, an‎d policy support for CCUS, an‎d the intensity of carbon regulations an‎d pressures in the global steel market—were selec‎ted as the scenario axes, resulting in four binary future scenarios. In addition, by combining four binary scenarios an‎d scenarios extracted from structural analyses an‎d ScenarioWizard software, a comprehensive architecture of the future of CCUS was finally drawn in the form of four final scenarios. In the final stage, a technology roadmap for CCUS was developed based on the selec‎ted reference scenario an‎d the results of previous analyses. This roadmap outlines short-term, medium-term, an‎d long-term development pathways for CCUS technologies an‎d systematically illustrates the relationships among strategic objectives, environmental requirements, technological options, an‎d organizational capabilities. The findings indicate that the future of CCUS in the Iranian steel industry depends less on purely technological progress an‎d more on the complex interaction among policy-making, energy economics, international markets, an‎d institutional structures. Overall, this research provides a scenario-based an‎d roadmap-oriented technology foresight framework that supports strategic decision-making for the transition of the Iranian steel industry toward low-carbon production an‎d can serve as a foundation for policy formulation, technology planning, an‎d future research in the field of carbon management technologies.

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