چكيده لاتين
The issue of land-use change, particularly since the second half of the twentieth century and especially in recent decades, has attracted the attention of researchers. These changes, on the one hand, cause extensive transformations in the human environment, and on the other hand, are themselves influenced by various environmental factors. Agricultural land use, due to its fundamental role in the production of food products, is recognized as one of the most important components in strengthening self-sufficiency, ensuring food security, and sustaining the ecological stability of human societies. Therefore, examining the trend of changes in agricultural land use and identifying the factors and driving forces affecting it—which constitute the main focus of the present research—are of great scientific and practical importance.In this study, in order to monitor and analyze the trend of land-use changes, remote sensing (RS) techniques and ENVI software were employed based on Landsat satellite image series (ETM+ and OLI), along with Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Moreover, to identify the trends of climatic parameters, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test was used over a 20-year period (2000–2020). The findings indicate that during this period, agricultural and orchard lands have significantly increased, highlighting the importance of agricultural and horticultural activities in the region, while rangelands and forest areas have decreased. Based on satellite imagery and field observations, the 361-hectare increase in residential areas between 2000 and 2020 indicates the conversion of agricultural lands into residential use. Likewise, the maps clearly demonstrate the reduction of rangelands and forests and their conversion into agricultural, orchard, and, to a lesser extent, non-agricultural lands. The greatest changes in agricultural lands are concentrated in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the county. Overall, in the past twenty years, approximately 4,000 hectares (about 2 percent) have been added to the county’s agricultural lands. In this regard, the results of the Mann–Kendall test for analyzing temperature and precipitation trends in Fereydunshahr County showed that the mean temperature during the 20-year period has a significant increasing trend, while total precipitation exhibits a significant decreasing trend. In the second part of the research, findings obtained from pairwise comparison of environmental factors within the AHP model by experts, as well as results derived from exploratory factor analysis by land users regarding the most important factors influencing the changes in agricultural land use, revealed that both groups identified climatic–biophysical, economic, and technological factors as the most influential in the process of land-use change in the county. Finally, the results of land-use change detection using remote sensing data and empirical findings were organized within the DPSIR framework to analytically and descriptively explain the complex relationships among the factors affecting land-use change. Analysis of the landscape structure in the study area showed that the degradation and conversion of natural covers into human land uses—such as the expansion of settlements and agricultural activities in steep and high-altitude areas—have led to serious environmental concerns. Highland areas, due to their specific climatic and soil characteristics, possess limited potential for extensive agricultural development. Shallow soil depth, low organic matter, and steep slopes are among the main factors contributing to reduced soil fertility and increased erosion in these areas. The findings of this study are consistent with those of previous research conducted in highland regions.
