تركيب سناريوها و گزينه‌هاي واقعي: مطالعه موردي شركت سپاهان پليمر

One of the key challenges for organizations an‎d various industries is making decisions about investing in new technologies under conditions of uncertainty. Also, with increasing environmental concerns an‎d decreasing oil an‎d gas resources, organizations around the world are looking for methods such as foresight an‎d scenario planning to create the necessary flexibility regarding uncertainties surrounding the industry, including PVC as one of the most widely used polymer materials in the industrial world. Although the scenario planning method tries to influence decision-making; it lacks a clear guide for how to prepare the organization for future investments. One of the methods of connecting the scenario to the organizationʹs strategy has been introduced as the real option. The concept of the real option is known for identifying financial investment opportunities; but there is a significant gap in the fact that in traditional real option models, the environmental factors affecting the fluctuations of the project value do not reveal. The main objective of this research is to bridge the gap between the theory an‎d practice of real option. In this regard, a main question was examined: How can real option be used to expan‎d scenario planning to prepare adaptive planning in multiple futures that contain uncertainty? To achieve the goals, the research was conducted in a three-stage approach. The first stage was to conduct a background study of the concept an‎d application of real option, especially a literature review in the field of scenario an‎d real option integration. In the second stage, after analyzing the models an‎d frameworks available in the literature, steps were taken to present two integrated techniques between the scenario an‎d real option planning methods. In the third stage, the implementation of the two integrated techniques was carried out in the PVC industry an‎d in particular in Sepahan Polymer Company. Sepahan Polymer Company is a manufacturer of various types of fully automatic polymer machines an‎d PVC tapes. The implementation was carried out in a mixed method, including two qualitative an‎d quantitative approaches, in three main phases: 1- Literature review an‎d identification of PVC industry scenarios; 2- Identification an‎d validation of real options by experts; an‎d 3- Fuzzy payment method. In the first step, using the research teamʹs opinions an‎d pre-workshop interviews, three scenarios were presented in the following order: 1 - Same industry an‎d same PVC scenario; 2- Scenario: What is the carbon footprint in your world? an‎d 3- Welcome to the new world of materials. Based on these scenarios, the research team identified engineering options that have deep uncertainty an‎d a long-term investment horizon. In the second step, a case study in Sepahan Polymer Company, five engineering options were selec‎ted by experts using a list of PVC industry options an‎d selec‎ted scenarios. Subsequently, using a spider diagram an‎d the method of eva‎luating real options in the companyʹs businesses an‎d selec‎ted scenarios, the laser hybrid tape option was identified as the superior option. The option obtained from the qualitative approach was then eva‎luated quantitatively using the fuzzy payment method. After creating a scenario matrix based on two key uncertainties, a triangular fuzzy number was formed based on the discounted cash flow of each scenario. Finally, after calculating the average of the fuzzy number obtained as the value of the real option of investing in hybrid laser strips, this number was compared with the price of this option, that is, the initial investment. Since its difference with the initial investment is positive; therefore, the decision to continue the investment was made.

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