تحليل تاثير شوك‌هاي مؤثر بر رابطه بين رشد اقتصادي و نابرابري درآمد در ايران، رويكرد DSGE

Investigating the Impacts of the Effective Shocks on the relationship between Economic Growth an‎d Income Inequality in Iran: a DSGE model approach

اقتصاد

Abstract The relationship between economic growth an‎d income inequality has always been one of the important issues of concern for economic planners an‎d policymakers. Since long ago, the question has been raised as to whether accelerating economic growth requires accepting a certain level of income inequality, an‎d whether improving the process of income distribution in society necessarily entails a slowdown in economic growth. This study analyzes how tax shocks, government expenditure shocks, government bond interest rate shocks, an‎d technology shocks affect economic growth an‎d income inequality in Iran, with human capital considered as a mediating factor. We have developed a new Keynesian DSGE model that includes households, firms, the oil sector, the foreign trade sector, government, an‎d the central bank. Using time series data for the period 2004 to 2023, key structural parameters were estimated by applying Bayesian estimation methods, an‎d economic ratios were also calculated based on these series. The findings show that increases in taxes, reductions in government spending, an‎d rises in government bond interest rates weaken economic growth, constrain human capital accumulation, an‎d intensify inequality. In contrast, technology shocks have the opposite effect; positive technology shocks strengthen economic growth, enhance human capital accumulation, an‎d prevent the intensification of income inequality. The findings of the study recommend that, in order to achieve sustainable growth an‎d reduce income inequality in Iran, a set of policies is essential. These policies include restructuring the tax system with a focus on human-capital-generating activities an‎d broadening the tax base, safeguarding long-term investment expenditures in education an‎d research, ensuring sustainable public debt management an‎d utilizing public–private partnerships, accelerating technological transformation through university–industry collaboration an‎d support for start-ups, an‎d finally strengthening coordination among fiscal, monetary, educational, an‎d social policies. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, Fiscal shocks, Human capital, Income inequality, New Keynesian approach.

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