تحليل تاثير شوك‌هاي بهره‌وري بر رفتار مصرف‌كننده (كاربرد مدل تعادل عمومي از منظر اقتصاد خرد)

Abstract This study, based on the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model from a microeconomic perspective, analyzes the impact of productivity an‎d fiscal shocks on consumer behavior in Iran. The main focus is on the distinction between Ricardian an‎d non-Ricardian households: the former, with intertemporal budget constraints an‎d access to financial markets, are able to smooth consumption an‎d adjust labor supply, while the latter depend on current income, an‎d liquidity constraints make their reactions sharper an‎d more immediate. Time-series data from 2004 to 2023 were employed using Bayesian estimation methods to identify the structural parameters of the model. Impulse response functions show that in the face of a positive tax shock, Ricardian households moderate the decline in consumption, whereas non-Ricardian households experience a sharper fall in both consumption an‎d labor supply. Under a negative government spending shock, Ricardian households partly offset the income loss, while non-Ricardian households, due to limited flexibility, show a stronger reduction in consumption an‎d labor supply. An increase in government bond interest rates raises borrowing costs for Ricardian households an‎d restricts their intertemporal budget path, leading to reduced consumption an‎d labor supply. Non-Ricardian households, who cannot borrow, are affected indirectly: the recessionary effects of higher interest rates reduce labor deman‎d an‎d current wages, an‎d this direct income decline results in sharper reductions in their consumption an‎d labor supply. Conversely, a positive technology shock, by raising productivity an‎d real wages, strengthens consumption an‎d labor supply among Ricardian households, while non-Ricardian households, facing delays in the transmission of productivity gains to current income, show weaker responses. The significant presence of non-Ricardian households in middle an‎d lower income deciles limits the expansionary effects of technology an‎d intensifies the contractionary effects of fiscal shocks. Accordingly, short-term supportive policies such as conditional cash transfers, vocational training, insurance an‎d tax exemptions, income stabilization funds, an‎d smart social safety nets are recommended. Furthermore, financial sector development through microfinance products, local credit cooperatives, financial literacy programs, an‎d inclusive digital banking can enhance financial inclusion an‎d strengthen consumer resilience at the microeconomic level. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models, Labor productivity-enhancing technology shock, Utility Maximization Problem, Non-Ricardian Consumers.

5 فصل

151105