چكيده لاتين
This study, entitled Scenarios of Adolescents’ Career Aspirations in the 2050 Horizon, aimed to identify and elucidate the forces shaping and transforming adolescents’ career aspirations and to present possible and preferred future scenarios in this domain. The research employed a six-stage mixed-methods design integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. In the first quantitative stage (systematic literature review), the study sought to identify trends, research gaps, and key concepts related to adolescents’ career aspirations. A systematic review of scholarly articles published in reputable international databases between 2000 and 2023 was conducted, yielding a final sample of 96 articles. Data extraction forms and VOSviewer software were used to perform concept network and clustering analyses, revealing the structural patterns and key concepts in the field. The first qualitative stage (expert interviews) aimed to extract overarching themes, trends, and influential variables through semi-structured interviews with 14 experts in futures studies, career counseling, sociology, political science, economics, and law, analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s six-step thematic analysis framework (2006). The second qualitative stage (scoping review) complemented the data by identifying global trends and policy influences through content analysis of 16 international reports and selected academic documents, employing structured content analysis forms. In the data integration stage, findings from previous quantitative and qualitative phases were synthesized based on the PESTEL-P model, categorizing political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, and psychological dimensions and identifying 12 key factors for structural analysis. The second quantitative stage (structural analysis with MICMAC) aimed to determine influence-dependence relationships among the 12 key factors, identify drivers and dependent variables, and map the position of each factor within adolescents’ career aspiration networks. Fourteen purposefully selected experts completed direct influence matrices, which were analyzed using MICMAC software, revealing primary drivers, highly dependent factors, and the structural positioning of each variable. In the third qualitative stage (scenario development), future scenarios were constructed based on the integrated data and key axes using a two-dimensional analytical framework. Finally, the scenarios were developed using a morphological approach and Goodman’s Iceberg Model (2000), systematically analyzing all layers from observable events and patterns to underlying structures and worldviews. The morphological approach was employed to address the complexity and inherent uncertainty of adolescents’ career futures, enabling the creation of diverse and realistic scenario combinations. Using a deductive, indicator-based approach, measurable indicators were defined and assessed for each scenario, allowing robust evaluation of theoretical and practical implications. Findings indicated that key indicators—future-oriented awareness, career resilience, technological influence, digital adaptability, meaning, and motivation—directly shape adolescents’ career aspirations. The “Empire of Aspirations” scenario, characterized by high self-awareness, strong resilience, and strategic technological utilization, represented an optimal framework, whereas the “Zombie Aspirations” scenario reflected passivity and technology-driven limitations, underscoring the necessity of multi-level and targeted interventions to foster active, creative, and meaningful career pathways for adolescents.
