سناريوهاي آرزوهاي مسير شغلي نوجوانان در افق 2040

This study, entitled Scenarios of Adolescents’ Career Aspirations in the 2050 Horizon, aimed to identify an‎d elucidate the forces shaping an‎d transforming adolescents’ career aspirations an‎d to present possible an‎d preferred future scenarios in this domain. The research employed a six-stage mixed-methods design integrating quantitative an‎d qualitative approaches. In the first quantitative stage (systematic literature review), the study sought to identify trends, research gaps, an‎d key concepts related to adolescents’ career aspirations. A systematic review of scholarly articles published in reputable international databases between 2000 an‎d 2023 was conducted, yielding a final sample of 96 articles. Data extraction forms an‎d VOSviewer software were used to perform concept network an‎d clustering analyses, revealing the structural patterns an‎d key concepts in the field. The first qualitative stage (expert interviews) aimed to extract overarching themes, trends, an‎d influential variables through semi-structured interviews with 14 experts in futures studies, career counseling, sociology, political science, economics, an‎d law, analyzed using Braun an‎d Clarke’s six-step thematic analysis framework (2006). The second qualitative stage (scoping review) complemented the data by identifying global trends an‎d policy influences through content analysis of 16 international reports an‎d selec‎ted academic documents, employing structured content analysis forms. In the data integration stage, findings from previous quantitative an‎d qualitative phases were synthesized based on the PESTEL-P model, categorizing political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, an‎d psychological dimensions an‎d identifying 12 key factors for structural analysis. The second quantitative stage (structural analysis with MICMAC) aimed to determine influence-dependence relationships among the 12 key factors, identify drivers an‎d dependent variables, an‎d map the position of each factor within adolescents’ career aspiration networks. Fourteen purposefully selec‎ted experts completed direct influence matrices, which were analyzed using MICMAC software, revealing primary drivers, highly dependent factors, an‎d the structural positioning of each variable. In the third qualitative stage (scenario development), future scenarios were constructed based on the integrated data an‎d key axes using a two-dimensional analytical framework. Finally, the scenarios were developed using a morphological approach an‎d Goodman’s Iceberg Model (2000), systematically analyzing all layers from observable events an‎d patterns to underlying structures an‎d worldviews. The morphological approach was employed to address the complexity an‎d inherent uncertainty of adolescents’ career futures, enabling the creation of diverse an‎d realistic scenario combinations. Using a deductive, indicator-based approach, measurable indicators were defined an‎d assessed for each scenario, allowing robust eva‎luation of theoretical an‎d practical implications. Findings indicated that key indicators—future-oriented awareness, career resilience, technological influence, digital adaptability, meaning, an‎d motivation—directly shape adolescents’ career aspirations. The “Empire of Aspirations” scenario, characterized by high self-awareness, strong resilience, an‎d strategic technological utilization, represented an optimal framework, whereas the “Zombie Aspirations” scenario reflected passivity an‎d technology-driven limitations, underscoring the necessity of multi-level an‎d targeted interventions to foster active, creative, an‎d meaningful career pathways for adolescents.

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