مدل‌سازي خطر فرسايش آبكندي با استفاده از الگوريتم‌هاي داده‌كاوي و تحليل سري زماني پوشش‌گياهي (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبخيز لامرد)

Modeling Gully Erosion Risk Using Data Mining Algorithms an‎d Time Series Analysis of Vegetation Cover (Study Area: Lamard Watershed)

جغرافياي طبيعي

Soil, as a valuable natural resource, plays a fundamental role in sustaining an‎d improving human life, an‎d its proper conservation is essential. Soil erosion, as a geomorphological process, leads to the displacement of soil particles an‎d organic materials to other locations. Among the different types of erosion, water erosion—particularly gully erosion—holds special importance due to its destructive impacts. Therefore, the present study aims to spatially model the gully erosion hazard in the Lamerd watershed, located in Fars Province, using three machine learning algorithms: Ran‎dom Forest (RF), XGBoost, an‎d TreeNet. In this research, 8,440 gully points were used as the dependent variable, while 30 environmental variables related to erosion were employed as independent variables, including topographic indices (elevation, slope, slope aspect, terrain ruggedness, cross curvature, longitudinal curvature, slope length, an‎d topographic wetness index), environmental factors (soil texture, lithology, lan‎d use, distance from roads, distance from rivers, soil erodibility, fault density, an‎d road density), hydrological indices (precipitation, stream power index, drainage density, an‎d flow accumulation), an‎d vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI, an‎d RVI). For model implementation, 70% of the identified gully data were used for model training, an‎d the remaining 30% were used for model testing. The modeling results indicated that the XGBoost model achieved the highest predictive performance with an AUC value of 96.15. The most influential variables in gully erosion were identified as vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI, RVI), precipitation, elevation, lan‎d use, an‎d drainage density. Finally, the results revealed that the central part of the watershed, extending from west to east, exhibited the highest susceptibility to gully erosion.

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