تاثير نوسان جريان هاي نقد عملياتي صنعت بر ريسك سقوط آتي قيمت سهام با درنظر گرفتن رقابت بازار محصول، عدم قطعيت سياست اقتصادي و محافظه كاري شرطي در شركت‌هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

The Effect of Industry Operating Cash Flow Volatility on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Considering Product Market Competition, Economic Policy Uncertainty an‎d Conditional Conservatism in Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

حسابداري

The risk of stock price crashes, defined as an unfavorable event, is a widespread phenomenon at the market level. This means that a decline in stock prices is not limited to a specific stock but affects all stocks in the market. A stock price crash leads to losses for shareholders an‎d investors, as well as a decline in the capital market, making it crucial to consider the factors influencing this phenomenon. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the impact of industry operational cash flow volatility on the future risk of stock price crashes, taking into account product market competition, economic policy uncertainty, an‎d conditional conservatism in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, four hypotheses have been formulated. The first hypothesis investigates the effect of industry operational cash flow volatility on the future risk of stock price crashes, while the second to fourth hypotheses examine the moderating roles of product market competition, economic policy uncertainty, an‎d conditional conservatism. To test these hypotheses, a sample of 136 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange was selec‎ted using a screening method over the period from 2012 to 2022. The study employs regression analysis an‎d panel data techniques for data analysis an‎d hypothesis testing. The findings indicate that industry operational cash flow volatility has a positive an‎d significant impact on the future stock price crash risk. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty amplifies the positive effect of industry operational cash flow volatility on the stock price crash risk, while accounting conditional conservatism weakens this positive impact. Additionally, contrary to expectations, the results show that product market competition reduces the positive effect of industry operational cash flow volatility on the stock price crash risk.

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