چكيده لاتين
Banking stress is one of the most critical issues threatening the banking system, potentially leading to financial and economic crises. Banking stress refers to a condition in which banks are unable to fulfill their functions and require support from the government or international institutions. According to certain economic theories, such as the Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory, banking stress affects macroeconomic variables such as the unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of banking stress on macroeconomic indicators in the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO). This research is applied in nature, employs a descriptive-correlational methodology, and is based on quantitative data. The statistical population of this study consists of the SCO member countries, including China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, and Pakistan. Data related to these variables were collected for the period from 2013 to 2022 to obtain more precise insights into the effects of banking stress on the economies of these countries. To test the hypotheses, the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model was employed. The results indicated that all relationships examined in the model were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). The estimated coefficients and test statistics confirmed that banking stress plays a decisive role in influencing these macroeconomic indicators. The first sub-hypothesis, regarding the impact of banking stress on the unemployment rate, was confirmed. The Granger causality test identified a bidirectional causal relationship between these two variables. Forecast error variance decomposition analysis showed that while the effect of banking stress on unemployment is significant in the short term, it diminishes over the long term. The second sub-hypothesis, concerning the impact of banking stress on inflation, was also confirmed. The Granger test established a causal relationship between these two variables, and variance decomposition analysis revealed that the impact of banking stress on inflation is stronger in the short term but persists in the long run. The third sub-hypothesis, examining the effect of banking stress on interest rates, was supported as well. The Granger causality test confirmed a causal relationship, and variance decomposition analysis indicated that this effect is more pronounced in the short term but remains significant in the long run. However, the fourth sub-hypothesis, which proposed an effect of banking stress on the exchange rate, was rejected. The Granger test did not establish any causal link between these variables, and variance decomposition analysis showed that the contribution of banking stress to exchange rate fluctuations was negligible, implying its insignificant impact compared to other economic variables. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that banking stress significantly affects unemployment, inflation, and interest rates in the SCO member countries, whereas its impact on the exchange rate is not substantial. These results highlight the importance of managing banking stress to regulate macroeconomic indicators and emphasize the necessity of formulating appropriate policies to mitigate its adverse effects.
