الگوسازي جريان تجاري بين ايران و كشورهاي عضو اتحاديه اقتصادي اوراسيا جهت تأمين امنيت غذايي پايدار

trade , Eurasian Economic unio‎n , food security , network , gravity model

The Modeling of trade flow between Iran an‎d member countries of the Eurasian Economic unio‎n to ensure sustainable food security

اقتصاد

In recent years, one of the main concerns in the country has been to ensure sustainable food security in the country an‎d create a favorable environment for people to use sufficient food. However, due to numerous droughts an‎d wrong policies in certain years in the field of agriculture, the country has faced the challenge of providing food at times. Therefore, the issue of ensuring sustainable an‎d quality food security has always been one of the important an‎d vital issues in the country. One of the appropriate an‎d common solutions in todayʹs economy is trade an‎d using the capacity of other countries to ensure food security in the country. It should be noted that trade an‎d ensuring food security are two very vital an‎d interrelated aspects in human societies. Food security, as one of the basic principles of the countryʹs development, is a goal that communities around the world are seeking to achieve. In this area, one of Iranʹs trading partners in agriculture is the Eurasian Economic unio‎n, with which there are many economic an‎d cultural relations. Given the importance of the subject, in this study, modeling trade flows between Iran an‎d the Eurasian Economic unio‎n will be considered an‎d eva‎luated to examine how to ensure sustainable food security using the capacity of this unio‎n. In this study, economic analysis tools including Eviews software an‎d Gephi software were used to achieve the objectives of the problem an‎d modeling trade flows. In this thesis, initially, using statistics from 6 countries, the trade network of basic agricultural products including wheat, barley, corn, paddy an‎d oilseeds between Iran an‎d members of the Eurasian Economic unio‎n for the years 2000 an‎d 2021 has been constructed, an‎d using network statistics, Iranʹs position an‎d its changes in this network have been measured during the 2 considered periods. Then, an attempt has been made to examine the effect of the network in the gravity model with greater accuracy by using the network index an‎d dividing it into other variables including the logistics performance index, number of agreements, tariff an‎d self-reliance coefficient, an‎d finally, the two models have been examined an‎d eva‎luated in the form of one model. Network indicators show that Iranʹs position in the trade network with the Eurasian Economic unio‎n in 2000 an‎d 2021 was low an‎d did not play an active role in the import an‎d export network of basic agricultural products. The results show that the density of the import an‎d export network of agricultural products between Iran an‎d the Eurasian Economic unio‎n increased from 2000 to 2021 an‎d contributed to the globalization of trade, but Iranʹs role remained weak. In the panel data analysis in all three models, the variables of the importerʹs an‎d exporterʹs GDP had a positive effect on the volume of trade, but factors such as cultural proximity, economic imbalance, an‎d distance did not have a significant effect on trade. Also, the trade agreement variable an‎d the logistics performance index had a positive an‎d significant effect on the volume of trade, an‎d finally the tariff variable an‎d the self-reliance coefficient had a negative an‎d significant effect on trade.

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