چكيده لاتين
Among the most significant environmental crises threatening urban societies today, characterized by gradual and slow changes, is the crisis of water scarcity and its healthy resources. This phenomenon, with more tangible effects in arid and semi-arid regions, can be influenced by factors such as: significant population growth, especially in densely populated urban areas, changes in lifestyles and water consumption patterns, decreased precipitation, imbalance in the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall in hot and dry regions, gradual increase in the Earthʹs average temperature, occurrence of periodic droughts, improper and unsustainable water resource management, increased per capita water consumption, and pollution of surface and groundwater resources. In this regard, population displacement and migration, as a natural response to environmental changes, aim to reduce some environmental risks and increase resilience to these changes. Therefore, considering that the city of Isfahan has a population of 1,961,260 people (based on the latest General Population and Housing Census in 2016) and an approximate annual rainfall average of 111.3 mm (until the end of 2022), as well as an emigrant population of 102,770 and an immigrant population of 84,488 people (in the period 2011-2016), in recent decades, it has faced the emergence and intensification of the water scarcity crisis and its consequences, including: drying of the Zayandehroud River and its canals, destruction of part of the gardens and the unusability of agricultural lands, reduced outputs and food production in the agricultural sector, and depletion of a significant volume of groundwater resources. The present study is designed to identify and analyze the factors affecting the adaptation of Isfahan citizens to the water scarcity crisis. In this research, in order to write the theoretical foundations and research literature, in the form of a library-documentary method, a number of resources related to the subject were reviewed, and a descriptive-survey method was also used in compiling the overall structure of the research. It is worth mentioning that considering all citizens of Isfahan (ordinary citizens in age groups above 15 years) as the statistical population of the research, the sample size was calculated as 384 people using Cochranʹs formula, and the required data were collected using a researcher-made statistical questionnaire containing closed-ended questions based on the Likert scale and systematic random sampling method. Its validity was confirmed by consulting experts, and its reliability was evaluated based on Cronbachʹs alpha coefficient above 0.7. In the next step, the data were analyzed after collection using Smart PLS software, and the characteristics of the individuals in the study sample were measured using descriptive statistics. Also, the evaluation of relationships between variables has been done based on structural equation modeling. The results obtained from the present study indicate that Isfahan citizens, in the decision-making process for adaptation to water scarcity caused by climate change, which is based on two approaches of migration and staying in Isfahan, pay more attention to the effectiveness of responses and their abilities to perform adaptation-based activities than just understanding vulnerability. It is also worth mentioning that people, when faced with water scarcity, are more influenced by the belief in the effectiveness of adaptation-based actions and self-efficacy in performing them than by awareness of the risk and severity of water scarcity.
