چكيده لاتين
Government budget deficit is one of the major economic challenges that many countries, including Iran, face. This phenomenon means an imbalance between government revenues and expenditures and can have significant consequences on economic growth and sustainable development. In Iran, budget deficits are usually caused by factors such as oil price fluctuations, international sanctions, and management inefficiencies that lead to a decrease in government financial resources. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of government budget deficits on inclusive growth in Iran.
This study aims to investigate the impact of budget deficits on inclusive growth in Iran during the years 1361 to 1401 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimated by EViews software. The research variables include inclusive growth as the dependent variable, budget deficit as the independent variable, and control variables include inflation rate, investment, exports, and imports. Research data was obtained from reputable statistical centers such as the Central Bank, the Statistical Center, and the World Bank and was used for analysis.
The research findings showed that inflation and investment had a significant impact on inclusive growth. Despite its negative effects in the short term, inflation has been able to have positive effects on inclusive growth in the long term due to increased infrastructure spending and strengthening some economic sectors. Also, investment, as one of the key factors of economic growth, has played an effective role in promoting inclusive growth. In contrast, the effect of budget deficit, exports, and imports on inclusive growth has not been significant. Based on the results obtained from the present study, reducing inflation and strengthening investment can play an important role in achieving inclusive growth in Iran. Also, the need to review the governmentʹs financial policies to manage the budget deficit and provide sustainable financial resources has been emphasized in order to reduce economic pressures and strengthen sustainable growth.
