مدلسازي رشد بهينۀ شهري مبتني بر سناريوي مطلوب (مورد مطالعه: شهر اصفهان)

Today, urban growth and expansion occur predominantly in peripheral areas, often disregarding the true capacity and limitations of these lands; This has led to the destruction of surrounding spaces and, in turn, has resulted in social and environmental problems, disrupting the symmetric form of cities. Therefore, a fundamental step towards urban management and planning, as well as assessing its cumulative effects, is the examination and simulation of the physical development of cities. Modeling and predicting the pattern of urban sprawl and land use changes in cities is instrumental in understanding the dynamics of urban areas. It can serve as an efficient and essential tool for planners, providing the ability to forecast the consequences of urban policies. The city of Isfahan is influenced by various factors in its spatial context due to horizontal and vertical expansion, increased population influx, and urban sprawl. Consequently, it has undergone significant changes and transformations, especially in terms of land use alterations. Therefore, the present study aims to model the optimal urban growth of Isfahan by presenting the optimal scenario of its physical-spatial development. The study area covers Isfahan city with an area of 55218 hectares. Due to the utilization of research findings in solving the spatial-physical development management of Isfahan city in the coming decades, the research type, based on its objective, is "applied". Given the dependency of the dependent variable “city growth” on independent variables influencing urban development in terms of nature, method, and data collection, a combination of "historical, case study, survey research, post-event or causal-comparative, action-oriented or interventionist" methods is employed. The method of data analysis includes calculating measures of urban sprawl density, Land Transformation Model (LTM), and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in the Multi-Criteria eva‎luation (MCE) model. In this regard, Using the classification of Landsat TM satellite imagery related to the years 1986, 1998, and 2016, the trend of urban distribution and land-use changes and factors affecting the spatial-physical development of the city during 30 years were investigated. Then, to predict Isfahan urban development In the Idrisi Terrset software using LTM, the future growth for 2046 was examined, simulated, and eva‎luated. Continuing, Land use changes were predicted as a "trend scenario" during the next three decades (2016-2046) based on the proposed LTM model. Ultimately, land use zoning modeling for the ecological potential development of Isfahan city for the year 2046 has been presented using the WLC method in the form of a "desirable Scenario". The results obtained from satellite image processing land use changes during the period 1986-2016 show a 178% increase in built-up lands and a decrease in agricultural (-13%), tree-covered (-75%), and pasture land uses (-28%). The results obtained from the methods of forecasting the future development of Isfahan for 2046 with the LTM model demonstrate the spatial expansion in the coming years as a spiral and the conversion of other uses into built-up areas to the extent that in the year of the horizon, the area of the built-up areas of the city increases 33% (5918 hectares) will reach 23781 hectares in 2046 from 17863 hectares in 2016. This has led to a reduction in agricultural land (21%), forest cover (18%), rangelands (14%), and water bodies (20%). The zoning results modeling the ecological potential of Isfahan urban development to identify and measure land suitability of development in 2046 via WLC also indicate that the total area of lands with high and medium suitability for urban development covers will be 5712 hectares, will locate in the western, northwestern, northern, eastern, and southern regions of the city.

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محمد حسين سرائي

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