چكيده لاتين
In todayʹs complex and challenging world, adopting innovative strategies can help companies perform better in the global competition. Although predicting the future with precision is difficult, examining current events allows organizations to prepare for a future shaped by these events. But how can organizations prepare for the future and make strategic decisions that ensure their survival and success? Developing scenarios is a critical step in strategic planning, offering organizations a set of possible futures to prepare for. However, scenarios in practice face challenges in addressing organizational needs because the key question that arises after developing scenarios is: "What should be done now?" Therefore, although scenario planning is highly effective for imagining diverse futures, its real value lies in its ability to shape strategic initiatives. Nonetheless, the existing literature lacks a comprehensive theoretical framework for connecting scenarios to strategies.
For this reason, this research examines various methods of linking scenarios to strategy in strategic management and explores a wide range of approaches that effectively bridge the gap between scenario generation and strategy formulation. Consequently, a systematic literature review was conducted as a tool to explore the existing literature in the field of linking scenarios to strategy, aiming to develop a conceptual model.
Before addressing the main topic in the research background chapter, two domain reviews were conducted in the areas of foresight and scenario planning. This review was carried out to understand the research domain and extract the researchʹs key terms from the literature. The research process began by identifying keywords through the scoping review conducted in the second chapter. These keywords were used to search for relevant articles in the Scopus and Web of Science databases. The search was limited to articles published in English and within the subject areas of business and management. In the initial search, 861 and 923 articles were retrieved from Scopus and Web of Science, respectively. After reviewing the abstracts, 95 articles were selected for in-depth analysis.
The selected articles were analyzed in terms of author, year, and country using VOSviewer software. The data indicated that due to the absence of a unified keyword, there is a dispersion in the literature. Fergnani and Wright can be cited as two important authors in this field, as they introduced several different methods for linking scenarios to strategy.
Following the review of the existing literature, a conceptual model called the "Scenario Transfer Model" is presented, which examines how scenarios can be used to analyze and assess existing strategies and create new ones. In this model, scenarios are linked to organizational strategies through four main pathways. The first approach is the construction of sub-worlds, which involves creating diverse and tangible futures using graphical or narrative scenarios. This cluster includes four main subcategories: future personas, sensemaking, Scenario 2.0, and deductive speculation. The second approach is the development of indicators, which involves identifying and developing indicators based on predicted trends and uncertainties. This group is divided into two branches: developing a strategic radar system and real options analysis. Another approach to linking scenarios and strategy is scenario reduction or steering, which involves combining or eliminating scenarios that are less likely to occur. The scenario steering cluster leads to two paths: converting possibilities into probabilities and converting possibilities into preferences.
