چكيده لاتين
Liquidity is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that has a great impact on the countryʹs economy, so it is not acceptable to deny the importance of liquidity in an economy. Increasing liquidity according to economic conditions can have positive and negative effects. In the country of Iran and especially in the economic conditions of recent years, the incentive to speculate has increased, which brings serious problems. The more attractiveness and profitability of speculation compared to investment in the production sector has not only led to the flow of available liquidity to markets with speculative potential, but has also increased the demand for money and, as a result, increased liquidity. One of the proposed methods to control speculation is to impose a tax. Tax as a contractionary policy, in addition to controlling speculation and its contractionary effect, can be a good source of income for the government.
According to the subject of the research, the effect of speculative on liquidity in the three markets of currency, gold and land and taxation on these markets was investigated using the structural vector autoregression model and instantaneous reaction functions. The results showed that the currency speculation shock increases liquidity in the first four periods; But after some time, along with the decrease in speculation, the liquidity also decreases. The liquidity response to gold speculation shock occurs sinusoidally. Imposing a tax on gold speculation will lead to a decrease in speculation and liquidity by increasing the cost of speculation. But after a few periods, despite the imposition of a tax on gold, speculation will rise again and lead to an increase in liquidity. Speculation in the land market in the first few periods leads to a decrease in liquidity; But from the third period, due to the investorsʹ belief that the price of land will not decrease, the volume of transactions of speculators in this market increases and leads to an increase in liquidity. Imposing a tax on land transactions also reduces the buying and selling in this market by increasing the cost of transactions. Despite bearing the created tax burden, after six periods due to the profitability of buying and selling land, it continues to speculate and liquidity increases.
Despite all these facts, not much attention has been paid to the relationship between speculation and liquidity. In this research, according to the importance of liquidity as a macro variable that is used to achieve other economic goals in structural adjustment programs, and considering the effect of the expansion of speculative activities on liquidity, how this effect was investigated. Also, in the previous researches, the imposition of tax as a control policy has been examined only in an unproductive sector, which does not have the necessary effect on liquidity control due to the profitability of other unproductive sectors after imposing a tax on one sector; Therefore, in this research, the tax on speculation was chosen in the unproductive sectors of currency, gold and land.
