مطالعه شرايط اقليمي خاص انار در شهرستان نجف آباد

The eva‎luation of climatic elements and its changes during the coming decades and its effects on garden products has a significant role in increasing the yield and raising the quality of the product. The purpose of this research is to eva‎luate the stages of pomegranate phenology in Najaf Abad gardens and then to analyze the possible reactions of this garden product in the coming decades with the continued increase in temperature and climate changes. For this purpose, first, the stages of pomegranate phenology in the mentioned area during 1400 to 1401 were calculated using the GDD method, then using the minimum and maximum temperature and sunshine hours data during the past period (2003 to 2022), the changes of elements for the future period were estimated and calculated. In order to eva‎luate the changes of the minimum, maximum and precipitation elements, the output of Molad Lares has been used according to the output of the fifth report based on the EC-EARTH model under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of the research showed that the total growth degree day in terms of effective temperature from the beginning of growth to the fruit development stage is 2457.1 degree days. The total number of days of growth in terms of active temperature from the beginning of growth to the stage of fruit development is 4728.8 degree days. The most thermal unit required by the plant from the beginning of growth to the end of the growing season is related to the fruit growth stage, which is equal to 1901.7 degrees of effective temperature days and 3281.7 degrees of active temperature days. The lowest thermal unit required by the plant from the beginning of growth to the end of the growing season is related to the reddening stage of the buds, which is equal to 20.8 degrees of effective temperature and 156.8 degrees of active temperature. The Lares generator output for the EC-EART model and the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios under it estimated an increase of 0.2 to 1.6 and 0.4 to 1.4 degrees Celsius respectively for the minimum temperature until the end of 2040. . According to the EC-EARTH model and the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the maximum temperature showed an increase of 0.3 to 1.7, 1 and 0.2 to 1.8 degrees Celsius respectively in the coming decades. According to the two mentioned scenarios, precipitation showed a decreasing trend between 1 and 7 percent. In the future period, the period of the growing season may be moved forward by 6 days in a balanced view. And in the pessimistic mode, due to the severity of the temperature increase due to the emission of greenhouse gases, 12 days of the growing season should be moved forward. Another stage that will be overshadowed by temperature changes is the stage of fruit growth and ripening. In this period, we will also witness an increase in temperature, which starts this stage 4.2 to 7.6 days earlier, and this affects the underdevelopment of the pomegranate, reducing its quality and taste. Pomegranate is effective.

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