چكيده لاتين
Afghanistanʹs geographical location has historically made it a target for great powers to seeking influence and control and this index contributing significantly to its perpetual crisis. With the Talibanʹs return to power in 2021, the relationship between the United States, as the current leading global power, and the Taliban regime holds immense significance. Following the Talibanʹs retaking power, the United States withdrew all military and political personnel from Afghanistan, closed the Afghan embassy in the US, and severed ties with the country across all domains. Considering the historical context of US-Taliban relations during the 1990s and the two decades of democratic rule in Afghanistan (2001-2021), the future of US relations with the Taliban regime is of particular importance. The central question of this research is: "What are the most likely scenarios for future relations between the Taliban regime and the United States?"
The study, employing Peter Schwartzʹs scenario planning method, identifies the key factors, drivers, and uncertainties influencing this relationship. These include the Taliban governmentʹs approach to human rights, particularly womenʹs rights and the rights of ethnic and religious minorities, the formation of an inclusive political and social government, and the severing of ties and combating international terrorist groups within Afghanistan. Changes in any of these factors can lead to different scenarios, which are:
1. Domestic Legitimacy and International Recognition: The Taliban regime gains both domestic legitimacy and international recognition, leading to official recognition and establishment of formal relations with the United States (Engagement Policy).
2. Lack of domestic legitimacy and international recognition: The Taliban government fails to gain domestic legitimacy and international recognition, resulting in provisional recognition and semi-formal relations with the United States (Conditional Engagement policy).
3. Domestic legitimacy and international recognition: The Taliban government achieves domestic legitimacy but fails to gain international recognition, leading to non-recognition and no formal relations with the United States (Isolation Policy).
4. Neither Domestic Legitimacy nor International Recognition: The Taliban government fails to achieve both domestic legitimacy and international recognition, resulting in non-recognition and no formal relations with the United States (Confrontation Policy).
Based on these scenarios, the preferred scenario for the Taliban government in its relationship with the United States is the Engagement Policy. However, considering past trends and the indicators established for each scenario, this scenario is not the most likely to occur. Therefore, to achieve the desired state, the Taliban government must fulfill the conditions set by the United States. The future of US-Taliban relations will be shaped by the Taliban governmentʹs efforts and willingness to meet these conditions.
This research, employing the theory of neorealism and the method of futurology based on Peter Schwartzʹs scenario planning, explores the causes and potential trajectory of relations between the Taliban government and the United States.
