چكيده لاتين
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, marked a turning point in U.S. foreign policy, leading to Americaʹs military intervention in Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban regime. Nevertheless, the Taliban continued to maintain a significant presence and activity in Afghanistan. During the Obama administration, efforts were made to stabilize Afghanistan through increased military presence and political solutions. Following Obama, the Trump administration pursued a negotiation path with the Taliban, resulting in the signing of the Doha peace agreement between the parties and the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan. During the withdrawal of U.S. forces, the Taliban became more assertive, escalating their attacks, seizing control of villages, provincial centers, and ultimately capturing Kabul, the capital, due to weaknesses in the Afghan government and military. The primary objective of the U.S. exit from Afghanistan was to shift focus towards new rivals such as China, identified as the top threat, followed by Russia and Iran. Currently, China is positioning itself for economic and security roles in the new Afghanistan, while the Taliban faces internal and international challenges, including legitimacy issues, identification and confrontation with ISIS-Khorasan, and dealing with resistance groups. This research examines the future security and politics of Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal. Following the resurgence of the Taliban after the U.S. military departure, challenges include the lack of domestic and global legitimacy for the Taliban, difficulties in establishing an inclusive government, non-compliance with international standards, interaction with external groups like Al-Qaeda, and the provocation of Pakistani Taliban. The rise in activities of ISIS-Khorasan and national resistance groups, coupled with the recognition of economic and political necessities and the flexibility of the Taliban in these domains, have posed significant challenges. Using a foresight approach, this study explores three scenarios, including international isolation and gradual Taliban decline, a return to internal conflict, and achieving stability, in the timeframe between 2025 and 2030. This analysis, focusing on national, regional, and global levels and employing the balance of interests theory, predicts and analyzes the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal on the security and politics of Afghanistan.
