چكيده لاتين
One of the problems and issues raised in the east of the country is the phenomenon of dust storms. Drought and other human factors have caused the dry bed of Jazmourian Lake to be one of the most active sources of dust production. The question here is, given the existing history of the lake, how will the amount and intensity of dust storms be in the conditions of reviving the lake? To achieve this goal, in this study, we have tried to reconstruct the past conditions and achieve the results of past environmental conditions. Reconstructing ancient environments has always been an interesting topic for geomorphology researchers, providing insight into trend analysis and the mechanisms of environmental systems. In the simulation of natural environments, in this study, the environmental reverse engineering method is used. In environmental reverse engineering, the past conditions are reconstructed, and based on that, the systemʹs performance can be understood. In the face of the natural environment, we face complex systems that as a set of interrelated components, continuously evaluate changes in the dependent elements of the system and adapt themselves to new conditions. Therefore, we need a method to identify environmental systems that can show us the dynamics in the mechanism and the operating algorithm of the system. Therefore, in this study, using dynamic system modeling, a model was developed to investigate the complex interactions in the system of reviving Lake Jazmourian, taking into account the set of effective factors. This study aims to develop a dynamic model to assess the reconstruction of Lake Jazmourian system in three main areas:
i) Reconstructing the environmental conditions of Jazmurian Lake to understand the possible reaction of the dust index.
ii) Simulation of environmental conditions in Lake Jazmourian during the period in which it has experienced different water levels.
iii) evaluation of past conditions scenarios and identification of the most effective system state against changes in the lake level.
Dynamic systems that rely on current environmental data can be classified based on variable classification and Chaos Theory in Vensim software. This allows for the dynamic algorithm of the relationships between variables and their dependencies to be modeled using "Dynamic Systems" modeling, without facing the limitations of static systems.
In this study, using 10-meter Dem data, analysis of written documents, and field data, reconstruction of the past environment of the Jazmorian hole was attempted. In order to the foresight and reduce problems based on the possible revival of Lake Jazmourian, various scenarios were developed based on its past conditions and possible changes in environmental forces in three different states.
The results showed that the Jazmorian Lake level plays the most important role in controlling environmental factors and the infusion of moisture through the restoration and sustainability of the 390 m (sea level) of the lake as the most efficient policy in order to control the dust can reduce the annual average dust by more than 75%.
Based on the dynamic systems model among dozens of environmental factors and variables, the dust control thresholds of the region will be possible only by controlling the volume of the lake with a surface area of 7000 square kilometers.
The use of environmental reverse engineering in this research proves that in many cases, by controlling the most sensitive influencing factor in the environment, the systemʹs mechanism can be changed so that the environment reaches the target conditions and the desired policy can be applied to solve the problem.
Also, introducing environmental reverse engineering as a prudent perspective in the environment field can be a solution to many issues that we are facing today by studying the environment as a complex system and reconstructing its ideal state in the past.
