تاب آوري منابع آب در آسيب پذيري از تغيير اقليم كارون شمالي

The phenomenon of climate change with changes in precipitation and air temperature has an effect on the hydrological system of a basin and the structures of agricultural, social and environmental societies, and the intensity of these effects varies depending on the vulnerability of a basin. Therefore, it can be important to provide appropriate solutions to reduce vulnerability to the adverse effects of this phenomenon in the future. Resilience is known as the potential capacity of a society exposed to risk, with the aim of maintaining or reaching an appropriate level of performance, to adapt or resist changes. North Karun Basin as the main source of the Great Karun River, in this research, while revealing the climate change of the North Karun Basin and its effects, the vulnerability of the water resources of the basin was estimated, and then the state of resilience and adaptation methods were eva‎luated. The results show the decreasing trend of precipitation at the level of the basin, and the western and southwestern lands of the basin were most affected. The very sharp decrease in the water flow anomaly and its negative trend indicates that the smallest change in the amount of rainfall in the basin strongly affects the amount of water resources in the basin. The negative trend in the sub-basins of Kohrang, Lordegan, Middle Karun and Venk is more than other areas and reaches about 40 to 60%. In terms of temperature, the minimum temperature has increased more according to the scenarios of the sixth IPCC report and in the eastern areas of the basin There has been a significant increase. In order to estimate the vulnerability, the cvi vulnerability index has been used. Based on this index, Beheshtabad, Lordegan and Venk sub-basins have the highest level of vulnerability. These sub-basins are also facing problems in water resources management. The selection of multi-crop resilience strategies, the use of modern irrigation methods and agriculture combined with animal husbandry have had the most points at the basin level. Due to the small size of the agricultural lands in the basin and the type of agricultural operations, several solutions have been implemented for more efficient management of water resources, one of which is the theory of games. The sub-basins that are facing the problem of water shortage and climate change has reduced water resources have been able to overcome the problems to some extent by applying this theory.

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