چكيده لاتين
The occurrence of banking crises in recent decades in industrial countries, and especially in developing countries, due to reasons such as deposit flight, increasing non-performing loans, economic recession, etc., has disrupted the order of financial markets and provided the grounds for bankruptcy of many banks. Examining the impact of macroeconomic variables on the operational risk index of state banks in Iraq is important from theoretical perspectives. First, this research helps to better understand the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and bank performance. Macroeconomic variables such as economic growth rate, inflation rate, and interest rate can have profound effects on the operational risks of banks. Given the economic and political conditions of this country, examining the impact of macroeconomic variables on operational risk can play an important role in identifying the weaknesses and strengths of the banking system and providing solutions to improve their performance.
In this regard, the present research has been conducted with the aim of explaining and examining the impact of macroeconomic variables on the operational risk index of state banks, case study: the economy of Iraq. The present research is a type of applied research. Also, this research is a type of structural equation in the field of banking, in which statistical relationships and mathematical models have been used to examine and explain the research variables. Data has also been collected through field and document mining methods. Also, the forward research is among the quantitative researches that are carried out in the form of experimental researches. The statistical population of the present study is all banks and credit institutions under the supervision of the Central Bank of Iraq, which is 160. Therefore, based on Cochranʹs formula, the number of samples for a broad and unknown community was estimated at 113 banks and institutions, which were surveyed using the cluster analysis sampling method.
In terms of how to infer the research hypotheses, this research falls into the group of research on the relationships between variables, because the structural equation model has been used to discover the relationships between variables. It was analyzed using Smart PLS software and significant relationships and factor loadings between variables were obtained. The research findings showed that the variable "economic growth" is influenced by the variables "exchange rate", "inflation rate", "bank interest rate" and "GDP growth" respectively with coefficients of 0.480, 0.457, 0.520, and 0.659 as effective factors in explaining economic growth changes are considered, and this research enables bank managers and decision-makers in Iraq to play an important role in identifying and managing the operational risks of banks, and as a result guarantees the stability and health of the banking system of this country.
